There is no doubt that the Conservative Party has dominated British Politics over the last
century, but is their success coming to an end, or has it prevailed despite controversies and the
resulting tensions faced in recent years? The European Union (EU) Referendum outcome left the
vast majority of political scholars in shock, and now, throughout Brexit, the Conservative Party’s
future has been a focal point for some. Let’s sift through history to determine what could lie
ahead for the Tories.
The beginnings of the Conservative Party started with Sir Robert Peel in the 1830s.
Nicknamed “the Tories” after forming from the old Tory Party, the Conservative’s first majority
in parliament was a short stint. Division among party members quickly ensued over the Corn
Laws, which sought to address Ireland’s famine at the time and resembles the current disunity of
Conservatives. This divide led to the party not holding a majority for the following thirty years.
Hope for the Conservative Party saw the light for the first time, since its formation, under
Benjamin Disraeli in 1868. His lead brought the party back together, strengthened their
identification, and grew membership. The Tories preserved their support and furthered it when
they allied with another coalition, Liberal Unionists, previously associated with an opposing
party, the Liberal Party; thus, the Conservatives controlled the next 20 years.
Upon entering the 20th century, a couple of splits in policy lost the Tories elections until
1918, towards the end of World War I. For the rest of this century, the Conservatives were
unstoppable, with a couple of upsets here and there, then came Margaret Thatcher. She was the
party leader and Prime Minister for over ten years. However, her successor, John Major, lost the
majority for the Tories because of the ever-unfolding internal conflict regarding European
integration. Although not due to a lack of effort, the Conservative Party did not win a majority
once again until 2014, bringing us to the EU Referendum where UK citizens would vote to either
stay or leave the EU.
Above is a graph representative of how voters felt about who was the best party on the
most important issue from 2015 to 2021: Brexit (“Britain’s Exit” from the EU). As shown, right
before the EU referendum outcome was announced on June 24, 2016, a steep decline of
confidence in the Conservative Party to handle the issue at hand was reported most likely due to
a public display of disunity between “Remainers” – those who voted to stay in the EU – and
“Leavers” – those who voted to leave the EU.
Theresa May was the Prime Minister and Conservative Party Leader from 2016-2019, a
period in which the graph indicates a decrease in confidence of the party to address Brexit, and is
at its lowest point during May’s resignation. In fact, the United Kingdom’s two biggest political
parties – Conservative and Labour – shared 20% of voters’ confidence, with the remaining 60%
believing in no party at all. Anthony Ridge-Newman wrote for Political Insight in 2018, “If the
Conservatives are to avoid the kind of electoral difficulties that followed the resignation of Peel
– and are to mend not only a divided party but, also, a divided nation and union – then the
outcome of the Brexit negotiations must offer the type of catch-all appeal that has been at the
root of Conservative electoral successes over the centuries.” So, the question is now, will this
issue trigger a situation in which Peel’s Conservative Party experienced, or Disraeli’s?
According to the charts above, from before the EU referendum to after Brexit, the
Conservative Party has been gaining in membership; according to the previous graph, despite the
declines in the confidence of ability throughout debates on Brexit, the Tories were on the rise as
the best party to handle the next most important issue: the Covid-19 Pandemic. Overall,
answering our question – the Conservatives have prevailed and avoided a devastation like the
very first one in their history.
Nicole McCoy – UMKC 2023
UK-KC 